| Tephrochronology and landscape change in Skaftartunga, Skaftartunga | This project used very high resolution sediment accumulation records to analyse the environmental impact of population changes in this region of Iceland since Landnam, and finished in 2011. The main results are in Richard Streeter's PhD thesis and in publications in PNAS and the Holocene (see links below). Skaftartunga has one of the best resolution tephra records in Iceland - tephra layers from Hekla in 1341 and 1389, Katla 1416, Veidivotn 1477, Katla 1500 and Hekla 1597 document the period before, during and after the 15th century with great precision. This is important because this time sees large changes in the form of two plagues in AD 1402 and AD 1494, which kill c30-50% (Karlsson 1996) of the population. Elsewhere in Europe the black death creates an environmental record of land use regression (e.g. Van Hoof et al. 2007) but thus far there has been no attempt to correlate changes in geomorphology in Iceland with these major demographic events. Through fieldwork in 2008, 2009 and 2010 we have generated a database containing over 220 soil profiles in the region, which consists of nearly 3000 dated tephra layers, and many thousand high resolution (+/- 1mm) photogrammetric measurements of sediment accumulation (further details in the thesis and Holocene paper). This database can be used not only to investigate changes in the period immediately following the plauge in the early 15th Century, but the relationship between population changes and the geomorphic record more generally. By analysing the relationship between climatic records for the region, and population changes over the whole settlement period we hope to begin to quantify how the geomorphic record (which is influenced by many factors) is made. In particular the influence of other major demographic events such as the 1707 smallpox epidemic, 1755 famine and 1783 haze famine will be considered. As part of this analysis agent based population modelling to establish the resilience and recovery time after demographic shock is also being developed. Initial results indicate that there was an easing of landscape pressure after the first plague in AD 1402, which is seen as a reduction in sediment accumulation rates in the period AD 1389-1416 to levels which are comparable to the pre-Landnam level and the lowest in the post Landnam sequence. While this effect is short lived with rates returning to average post-Landnam rates in the period AD 1416-1477, this easing of landscape pressure may have increased overall landscape resilience. This may explain the lag between climatic deterioration in the 14th century and the geomorphic effects appearing in the late 18th century. |
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